La Liga Thoughts & Rambles
Round 1 predictions and an ante-post bet.
Spanish top-flight football returns this Friday evening, and a host of high-profile summer signings from La Liga’s top teams have contributed to expectations of an exciting season. Girona will kick things off in a home match against Rayo Vallecano, and Round 1’s opening fixtures will conclude on Tuesday, with last season’s runners-up Real Madrid hosting Osasuna at the Bernabeu.
The two most interesting fixtures though, in my view, come on Saturday, firstly with Barcelona looking to get off to a good start away at Mallorca, as Hansi Flick bids to make it back-to-back league title wins. Barca enjoyed a fruitful and high-scoring pre-season, albeit against inferior teams, and I must say I’m a tad surprised that they’re a shade of odds against to make it two in a row. 6/5 is the best price a punter can find with the leading bookies, which although is short on the surface, I’d argue is tremendous value. Only Spreadex and Sporting Index have the two El Classico clubs as joint-favourites (19/20), with the majority of the leading bookmakers pricing up Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid as an odds-on shot fancy to win the title. No doubt due to their busy summer transfer window, signing the likes of Alexander-Arnold from Liverpool (£8.5m) and Huijsen from Bournemouth (£50m), thus bolstering the back line. Whilst Barca have perhaps made more financially-cautious signings, i.e Marcus Rashford on a season-long loan, they’ve managed to keep all of their star players, I still fancy their chances at retaining the title, particularly at those prices.
Unsurprisingly, there won’t be many punters whose eyes will light up at the thought of a 6/5 ante-post football bet, but there can only be one winner in a two-horse race, and no one in their right mind can deny La Liga is such.
Saturday’s late fixture sees Valencia host Real Sociedad, and I’ll be really keen to see how Los Che get on. They enjoyed a great second half of the season last campaign, and will be looking to build on that momentum going into this one. Pre-season could have been better, winning just one of their five games and losing two - and they’ve also lost some big names, most notably Giorgi Mamardashvilli back to Liverpool and Cristhian Mosquera to Arsenal. The replacements and other additions have been somewhat underwhelming, but I fancy head coach Carlos Corberan to do well with what he’s got, and I’d have been all over a Top 8 or even a Top 6 market should I have been able to find one…
18/1 for a top-four finish is looking like the best we’re going to get, and when one considers that it’s essentially a bet to finish fourth (behind Barca, Real and Atleti), it really doesn’t seem worth a stab. Therefore, although the game is screaming draw to me, perhaps the best course of action would be to have a poke at the 8/5 on offer for Valencia to win on the opening day, because if they’re going to be fighting for fourth, it’s teams like Sociedad they need to be beating.
Round 1 Predictions
Girona v Rayo Vallecano - Girona win
Villarreal v Real Oviedo - Villarreal win
Alaves v Levante - Alaves win
Mallorca v Barcelona - Barcelona win
Valencia v Real Sociedad - Valencia win
Celta Vigo v Getafe - Draw
Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla - Draw
Espanyol v Atletico Madrid - Atletico Madrid win
Elche v Real Betis - Real Betis win
Real Madrid v Osasuna - Real Madrid win